Bitcoin dominance over the crypto market has reached levels not seen in nearly four years. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital has warned that altcoins are struggling to hold ground, with Bitcoin’s market cap dominance reaching a recent peak of 64.3% before settling around 61%.
As Bitcoin’s price remained relatively strong despite broader economic uncertainty, investors began questioning whether altcoins would soon recover. However, Rekt Capital believes that the bottom for Bitcoin dominance was already established in early December when it dipped below 55%.
“That was the Bitcoin Dominance bottom, effectively confirming an end to the mini Altcoin Season we saw at the end of 2024 BTC,” he stated. Since then, Bitcoin’s dominance has surged by 6%, making it difficult for altcoins to regain momentum.
Bitcoin market cap dominance | Source: Rekt Capital
A Long Road for Altcoins’ Comeback
While some traders hope for a quick recovery, Rekt Capital argues that a true alt season will only return once Bitcoin’s dominance climbs another 16% from its current level. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin dominance will need to reach 71% before altcoins can start to flourish again.
“If history repeats, the real Altseason everybody is waiting for would begin once Bitcoin Dominance rejects from 71% (red),” he explained.
Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart | Source: Rekt Capital
Not everyone shares this view. The trader Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin dominance at 64%, was “highly bearish” for the market. He noted the appearance of a Gravestone Doji pattern on the dominance chart, a rare formation that could indicate a potential shift in favor of altcoins.
Meanwhile, Stockmoney Lizards, a trading resource, suggests that Bitcoin’s growing dominance is due to a mix of factors. These include post-halving enthusiasm, ETF-driven demand, and even political influence, such as Donald Trump’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve.
“There are several factors contributing to the heavy underperformance of Altcoins vs. Bitcoin. First, we are still in the post-halving Bitcoin Euphoria phase. This is fueled by ETF buying, as well as Trump’s plans of a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” the firm stated in a post on February 5.
Another key factor holding altcoins back is the continued weakness of Ethereum. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been stuck in a multiyear downtrend against Bitcoin, further strengthening Bitcoin’s overall dominance in the market.
Historical Patterns Hint at Rally
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, the well-known analyst Cryptowzrd suggests that altcoin season might be on the horizon, potentially kicking off as early as March 2025. His shared chart published on February 3 highlighted a recurring historical pattern in the OTHERS/BTC ratio, revealing similarities with past altcoin bull runs.
OTHERS/BTC 1-month chart | Source: Cryptowzrd
Cryptowzrd stressed the significance of the Higher Low Trendline, recently retested. He noted that previous breakouts from this level sparked major altcoin rallies. In February 2017, a retest of this trendline preceded a strong altcoin rally starting in March. A similar pattern occurred in January 2021, leading to another surge across the altcoin market.
Now, in February 2025, the OTHERS/BTC ratio has once again bounced off this critical level, potentially laying the groundwork for another altcoin rally. Adding depth to his analysis, Cryptowzrd incorporates Elliott Wave Theory, completing a corrective wave (1-5) that signals a potential upward move. If you wondering what crypto to buy now, Bitcoin looks like a safer bet while its dominance is rising. When it eventually peaks, is the optimal time to buy alt coins.
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