VanEck’s Outlines Potential Role Of BTC In Strengthening U.S. Treasury Balance Sheet

• VanEck estimates Bitcoin reaching $21 million per BTC by 2049 could offset 18% of projected U.S. debt.
• The BITCOIN Act proposes the U.S. accumulate one million BTC over five years as a national reserve.
• Arkansas and Texas are considering state-level Bitcoin reserves amid rising institutional and political interest.

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, has proposed how Bitcoin could bolster the U.S. Treasury’s balance sheet. In a post on X, Sigel detailed VanEck’s analysis, estimating Bitcoin’s potential as a sovereign reserve asset amid rising U.S. debt levels.

Sigel’s analysis projects that if Bitcoin appreciates at an annual rate of 25%, its value could increase from $100,000 to $21 million per BTC by 2049. Under this system, BTC reserves could offset 18% of the cast U.S. debt. VanEck expects U.S. debt to extend at 5% annually, growing from $36 trillion in 2025 to $116 trillion by 2049.

This projection coincides with legislative developments surrounding Bitcoin’s potential role in national reserves. The BITCOIN Act, introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, proposes that the U.S. accumulate one million BTC over five years and hold it for at least two decades.

The possibility of a national Bitcoin reserve has gained traction in prediction markets. Polymarket reports a 44% chance of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin reserve in 2025, up from 39% earlier this month. Kalshi data shows a 59% probability that former President Donald Trump would create a Bitcoin reserve if re-elected, rising from 53.8% recorded on February 12.

At the state level, Arkansas is positioned to become the first to implement a Bitcoin reserve, with legislative amendments expected by March 5. Texas is also preparing to debate a similar proposal in its Senate.
Support for Bitcoin as a strategic financial asset continues to grow as policymakers explore options to counter inflationary debt pressures. VanEck’s projections highlight Bitcoin’s potential to complement traditional reserves, with state initiatives potentially setting a precedent for federal adoption.

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