Quick Summary
- Lyn Alden says Bitcoin would be higher if not for Trump’s renewed tariffs.
- She still expects BTC to post gains, with a shot at $100K by year-end.
- Liquidity surges from macro events could accelerate Bitcoin’s rise.
- Market volatility and 24/7 trading make BTC more reactive than traditional assets.
- Analysts remain split: Some see consolidation ahead, others expect new highs in Q2.
Tariffs Take the Edge Off Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum
Renowned macro strategist Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin is on a solid trajectory for 2025—but recent U.S. trade policy shifts are applying the brakes. In a recent interview, Alden said she expected a higher year-end target before former President Trump’s February tariff announcement.
“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden said in an April 17 interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories.
While she maintains a positive outlook, Alden now tempers expectations slightly, citing these tariffs as a key factor suppressing bullish momentum.
Liquidity Is Key to Unlocking Higher Bitcoin Prices
Alden notes that if the U.S. bond market faces a crisis, the Fed may respond with quantitative easing or yield curve control—and this could cause a global liquidity surge that benefits Bitcoin.
“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she noted.
BTC has often been described as a global liquidity barometer, and Alden reinforces that idea—saying Bitcoin tends to be among the first assets to move when macro conditions shift.
History Rhymes: Echoes of the 2003–2007 Cycle
Alden compared the current climate to the 2003–2007 weak dollar cycle, when capital fled into commodities, gold, and emerging markets instead of U.S. equities. Bitcoin could benefit similarly in the coming years.
“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well,” she explained.
Mixed Technicals: Consolidation or Continuation?
Not everyone shares Alden’s cautiously optimistic view. Markus Thielen of 10x Research thinks Bitcoin may be entering a late-cycle top, not the start of a new rally.
He points to the stochastic oscillator, suggesting BTC is more likely headed into a consolidation phase despite many analysts still calling for new highs by mid-year.
Still, other experts remain bullish:
- Timothy Peterson points to seasonal strength in April and October.
- Jamie Coutts of Real Vision sees new highs in Q2.
- Matt Hougan of Bitwise still stands by his $200K end-of-year prediction.
Bottom Line
Even with tariff-induced headwinds, the macro case for Bitcoin in 2025 remains strong. Whether it breaks out to $100K or cools off in consolidation will likely depend on:
- U.S. fiscal and monetary policy
- Global liquidity conditions
- Geopolitical and regulatory shifts
One thing’s certain—Bitcoin doesn’t sleep, and neither does the market. Buckle up.