Bitcoin Loss Margins Hit -13.86%: What Happens Next for the Market?

• Bitcoin traders are at a -13.86% loss since the realized price stays higher than the market.
• Historical evidence suggests that profit/loss margins of -13.86% might trigger a market shift.
• This divergence between realized and spot price could see the end of bearish pressure shortly.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders presently hold positions with exorbitant statistics of average loss at -13.86% according to the latest on-chain metric data. This loss margin is due to the realized price of Bitcoin, which means the price on average at which the coins were last moved on-chain, being significantly above the market price. The realized price is at 98.0831K and the spot price of about 84.4904K shows a whopping difference of just a little over 13.59%. This wedge represents the real pressure traders are encountering at this time, where most are making losses on their trades. The historically negative profit/loss margin of Bitcoin traders below -13.86% is often correlated with the vanishing selling pressure, putting an end to the whole bearish phase.

The chart shows the obvious surge of the profit-loss margin running from November through to February. Although latest data, by March 21, 2025, have indicated that a significant fall has occurred since then. The profit-loss margin lately dipped to -13.86%, thus marking the momentous venue of price action which oscillating in the last 2-3 months between 85K and 98K. 

The report indicates that the Profit/Loss Margin-SMA30 calculated on the basis of the 30 days moving average for profit-loss margin, stands at -12.01% as of March 21, which indicates that pessimism has been deep-seated ever since, albeit with brief lessons of recovery. Put differently, the margin shows that, in average terms, traders are pretty much still in the red since Bitcoin went past into a much higher range of price levels created with declining interests to buy into such prices.

Past behavior suggests that Bitcoin’s realized price works as a close resistance level and has been staying high for a considerable amount of time since it was last calculated. As per our findings, at this time, it sits some 13.59% above what is understood to be the asset’s market price. 

The prolonged divergence infers that a good number of traders that have bought these higher blocks are sitting on losses, suggesting that the Bitcoin spot price sells off so long as the realized price stays above it. They do not forget the time whenever the market tried to show bullishness; however, their previous generations have now become a haunting memory to the bullish traders present.

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