Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $83,000 but faces mixed signals. Technical rejection, volume trends, and macro uncertainty threaten a downside move toward $78,600.
A failed breakout above a multi-month descending resistance line has added pressure to BTC’s structure.
Despite a short-lived spot-driven rally to $88,500 earlier in the week, bearish targets remain valid amid declining volume and geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin Descending Trendline Still Intact Despite Spot Buy Surge
Carl Moon flagged Bitcoin’s repeated failure to breach a descending resistance line that dates back to late Jan., highlighting weakening momentum. He wrote on X,
“The trading volume continues to decline, which means this bearish target of $78,600 is still in play.”
His chart suggests a sharp selloff could follow if bulls lose control of the current range.
Rekt Capital echoed a cautious tone noting the importance of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), stating,
“BTC is getting close to positioning itself for a future breakout.”
A weekly close above $87,650 could shift the trend in favor of bulls, but the price has so far struggled to hold above the trendline.
Despite brief rallies, spot demand has not been sufficient to invalidate the longer-term bearish structure.
Santiment data shows Bitcoin touched $87,300 but gained only 0.2% in the past week, while the total crypto market cap fell 7%.
$88.5K High Driven by Shorts Liquidated and Tariff Delay
BTC hit an intraday high of $88,500 earlier this week as spot volumes surged. Data from CoinGlass showed $145 million in total liquidations, with $69.4 million from Bitcoin shorts.
Short squeezes played a major role in the move, but analysts warned it lacked follow-through strength.
Coinchapter reported that the rally followed news that President Donald Trump’s planned “Liberation Day” tariffs were not finalized.
Countries like Israel, India, and Mexico have retracted their retaliation plans, temporarily easing investor fears.
Bitcoin continues to trade under the 50-day moving average, a level that previously marked strong resistance.
Coinbase and Binance Spot Traders Diverge, Then Align
Throughout March, Binance traders aggressively sold BTC, while Coinbase showed steady bids around $80,000. In April, this dynamic shifted as both exchanges showed rising spot demand.
Data from Aggr.trade confirmed spot bids reached $7.98 million on Coinbase within hours.
Market analyst Dom noted the change, stating.
“BTC has been able to breathe ever since the Binance selling tapered off.”
He also pointed to fresh spot buying on Binance, the first in over a week.
However, this newfound alignment has not yet translated into a clean breakout. BTC trades slightly below the $87,700–$88,700 resistance band formed by previous highs.
Volatility Expected as Trump’s Tariff Deadline Nears
Ali Martinez posted earlier today that Bitcoin now trades within a critical range: $86,900 to $84,800. He warned,
“Whichever side breaks first on the hourly chart will likely define the next big move.”
The White House’s press conference at 4 p.m. Eastern Time could shape the market’s next direction.
Traders will watch closely as President Trump addresses the pending tariff rollout.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the $85,000-$86,000 range could embolden bears, especially if macro uncertainty escalates.
A close below $85,000 may confirm bearish invalidation and bring $78,600 into play.
Bulls Still in the Game, but Time Is Running Out
Bitcoin remains at a pivotal juncture. While strong spot demand and short liquidations have fueled recent gains, the broader structure remains fragile.
Declining volume, trendline resistance, and macro risks may cap upside momentum. The market remains on edge ahead of the weekly close and the Trump administration’s tariff announcements.
A confirmed breakout or breakdown could define BTC’s trajectory heading into mid-April.
Until then, the $78,600 bearish target remains in sight, as does the hope of a breakout beyond $90,000.
The post Bitcoin Price Faces $78K Breakdown Risk Amid These Factors appeared first on The Coin Republic.
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