Bitcoin investors who bought at record highs earlier this year are now rushing to exit, as the cryptocurrency’s price decline fuels widespread panic selling. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a wave of selling pressure from recent buyers has triggered “intense loss realization” and could push Bitcoin’s price down to as low as $70,000 if the trend continues.
Glassnode’s March 11 report highlights a critical factor behind the sell-off: the rising cost basis of short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. In October, the average purchase price for this group was around $62,000. By March, it had surged to $91,362, reflecting the large number of buyers who entered the market as Bitcoin approached its recent peak of $109,000 in January.
However, with Bitcoin currently trading around $81,930, these investors are now staring at an average unrealized loss of approximately 10.6%. Glassnode warns that this signals a shift in market sentiment, as demand weakens and investor confidence erodes.
Capitulation Risks Grow
Glassnode’s data suggests that short-term holders are deeply underwater in the $71,300–$91,900 range, making them the most likely to offload their holdings. If this selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could establish a temporary bottom near $70,000.
The recent dip below $80,000 has been described as a “textbook correction” by market research firm 10x Research. Their March 10 analysis found that nearly 70% of Bitcoin selling over the past few days has come from investors who bought in the last three months—many of whom purchased Bitcoin near its peak and are now cutting their losses.
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes has suggested that Bitcoin could test the $78,000 support level, warning that if it fails to hold, the next major stop could be around $75,000.
Bitcoin Historical Patterns
Glassnode pointed out that a similar panic-driven sell-off occurred last August when Bitcoin plunged from $68,000 to $49,000. That drop was fueled by fears of a U.S. recession, weak employment data, and sluggish growth in major tech stocks—factors that also appear to be influencing today’s market.
However, Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent hours, bouncing back by 7.5% on March 11 as U.S. markets stabilized following a sharp drop the previous day. The recovery was partly driven by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who refused to rule out the possibility of an economic recession.
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