The year 2025 started in the worst way for the stock prices of Microsoft and Tesla on the bull.
In fact, the first quarter ended with heavy losses, but they were mitigated for the Tesla stock by the fact that it rose significantly at the end of 2024.
These are still two different situations, even if they are similar because both have to do with the US stock exchanges.
The crash of Microsoft stocks
Lately everyone is talking about the crash of Tesla’s stock price, but in reality for Microsoft the situation is worse.
Taking as a reference the price at the end of October 2024, before Donald Trump’s electoral victory, Microsoft shares were then at a price level between $400 and $410.
With the so-called “Trump trade,” they had risen just above $450, that is, below the historical peak recorded in July of the same year above the $468 mark.
Already this should have set off an alarm bell, but the worst came after.
In fact, already in mid-January, before the inauguration of Trump at the White House, the price had returned to $410, exhausting all the gains of the Trump trade, and starting from February 21, a collapse began that brought it back even below $370 yesterday.
One can effectively talk about a collapse, because Microsoft stock hadn’t seen these price levels since January of last year, and they are in line with those of November 2023.
Perhaps during the first seven months of 2024, a mini-speculative bubble had inflated on the Microsoft stock, which for a certain period had led it to compete with Apple for the title of the most capitalized company in the world.
Subsequently, however, the role of the main challenger to Apple from this point of view has passed to Nvidia, and now Microsoft capitalizes 2.8 trillion dollars against Apple’s 3.3 trillion.
Curiously, even on Nvidia a mini-bubble had inflated, and in fact, it is now back to third with 2.6 trillion dollars in market capitalization.
The collapse of Tesla stocks: what changes compared to Microsoft?
For Tesla, however, the discussion is different.
In fact, although during 2025 it lost more than 33%, so far, the current price of about $260 is higher than the $250 it had at the end of October.
It should be noted, however, that Tesla’s stock has a higher average market volatility than Microsoft’s, also because it has a much lower market capitalization (around 850 billion dollars).
And so after a 2023 not particularly brilliant, during 2024 it first fell below $140, and then thanks to the Trump trade it rose to almost $490, marking its new all-time high.
Note that the previous all-time high was in November 2021, when it had already risen well above $400, so initially it lost 75% of its value from the highs during the bear-market of 2022, then it recovered 36% by April 2024, and then recorded a remarkable +250% in just eight months.
At this point, the -33% since the beginning of the year does not appear to be a particularly negative performance, so much so that it might not even be correct to talk about a “collapse”.
This is just the burst of yet another mini-speculative bubble inflated by the price of this stock, whose trend is extremely tied to the volatile public opinion about its CEO and major shareholder Elon Musk.
The Attempted Rebound
Despite all this, in reality, in the last stock market session, the two stocks recorded a rebound that in theory could also be interesting.
Note that yesterday the Nasdaq closed practically unchanged, while the S&P500 recorded a mini-rebound of 0.5%.
The Microsoft stock yesterday hit the lowest point of the last 14 months at 367$, but immediately after it bounced back, ending up closing the session at 375$, which is more than the 372$ at the opening. However, it should be added that in after-hours the price then fell below 374$.
In theory, this could also be considered a possible sign of a bottom, even though nothing excludes that the trend decrescente might continue.
For Tesla, however, the rebound was more significant, because the bottom of 2025 for now was reached on March 11 at $215, and already the following day it had attempted a rebound.
In reality, however, the price continued to suffer until March 21, and the true bull rebound began on that date and ended on March 27 above $290.
It didn’t last long, however, because currently it is again below $260, although still far from the $215 of March 11.
Since the two mini-speculative bubbles that had inflated the price of Microsoft and Tesla shares in 2024 have now deflated, the two stocks now seem to be at the mercy of the bull and bear markets.
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