According to Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum, a potential US strategic Bitcoin reserve could have a major multiplier effect on the market.
$1 Billion US Bitcoin Reserve Could Trigger $20 Billion Market Cap Gain
Tischhauser estimates that every $1 billion inflow could lead to a $20 billion increase in Bitcoin’s market value, citing limited liquidity and demand shocks as key factors.
Tischhauser explained that Bitcoin’s small liquid supply intensifies price swings when large capital inflows enter the market.
“Every $1 billion of strategic reserve purchases can have a 20x multiplier effect,” he said, stressing that demand shocks occur when inflows exceed available supply, forcing prices higher.
The scarcity of liquid Bitcoin plays a major role in this dynamic. As Tischhauser describes, the first few billions of dollars in inflows will exhaust the ready supply, making it harder for subsequent buyers to acquire Bitcoin without driving prices up significantly.
“The potential demand shock will be very significant because Bitcoin’s liquid supply is really small,” he explained. Early entries will absorb most of the available supply, leaving less Bitcoin on exchanges and intensifying the price rally.
Corporate and Government Demand Could Cause Market “Stampede”
Beyond government reserves, Tischhauser pointed to institutional investors, corporate treasuries, and even local governments as potential sources of sustained net demand.
He also noted that rising stablecoin market caps serve as a leading indicator of crypto inflows, indicating that large amounts of capital are preparing to enter the market.
Looking ahead, Tischhauser sees even bigger potential increases in 2025, especially if central banks start allocating to Bitcoin. “The 20x multiplier is based on past inflows, but we could see even bigger increases this year if central banks really get involved,” he added.
*This is not investment advice.
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