The stablecoin market cap against Bitcoin price from 2018 through early 2025 supported the idea that price peaks may lie ahead.
Historically the highest supply levels of stablecoins occurred at the same time when crypto market cycles reached peak levels.
The stablecoin market capitalization reached $187 Billion during April 2022 which corresponded with a BTC peak approaching $40,000 yet the bear market had not started.
As of press time, the stablecoin market had expanded to $219 Billion and keeps growing yet BTC achieved a value surpassing $100K early in 2025.
The crypto market remains in a mid-cycle position because the surging stablecoin supply signifies ongoing investor liquidity with sustained demand.
This combination of stable investor liquidity and demand typically occurs in bull markets rather than at market cycle peaks.
The Bitcoin price fell to $69,000 during late 2021, yet the stablecoin limit reached $150 Billion at that point before experiencing a market decline.
The expansion of stablecoin supply which stands at $219 Billion and continues to increase confirms that the market peak has not been achieved.
Short-term BTC Holders
Analysis of BTC alongside 3-month market cap joined by the 1-3 month realized cap while the 1-3 month realized cap weekly change depicts the time frame from September 2023 to March 2025.
The sharp uptrend in weekly realized cap change during the late part of 2024 showed that short-term Bitcoin holders (1-3 months) sold off about $100 Billion worth of assets since February 2025.
Consequently, a panic sell-off followed that exacerbated crypto market stress.
A continuous price decline would be triggered by a large wave of temporary holders exiting the market since their departure weakens purchasing support and adds to supply levels.
This increased supply would serve as a buying signal for long-term owners because their intervention may indicate that market sentiment will transform into either upward momentum or total market reversal.
When weak hands are processed out from the market the space becomes available for new buyers to enter.
Permanent selling activity that lacks participation from long-term owners will make a bear market worse however their involvement could lead to crypto market’s recovery.
Why the Bear Sentiments In Crypto Market
Additionally, the stock market is in a downtrend as bears have accounted for more than 55% for 3 consecutive weeks.
This has only happened one other time in history, that was on March 4, 2009.
Notably, online searches to find information on cryptocurrency purchases reached ATHs in September 2021 through the “how to buy crypto” search query.
This has since dropped to bear market levels in 2023, but is exhibiting early signs of rising in late 2024.
The data regarding retail participation in crypto reflects the trend of retail search behavior since it reached its peak during the 2021 market bubble and then declined after that.
The continued limited interest suggests a lengthy bear sprint could continue as lowered retail demand would typically result in price stability or fall.
Persistent growth in search engine queries means retail activity is returning to the crypto market, thereby creating purchasing power that would drive the price hike.
The post Is Crypto Market Peak In?—Stablecoin Data Suggests… appeared first on The Coin Republic.
The Coin Republic – Read More